Herding Sheep: The Current State of EV Adoption in Europe

European car buyers are a bit like a flock of sheep. In an ideal world, they would all move at a respectable pace from various directions and into the pen marked “electric vehicle (EV) adoption.” In the real world, they walk at a pace and direction of their choosing despite the efforts of governmental “sheep dogs” that gently persuade them toward the pen. Indeed, in the UK, with the ban on selling new gas and diesel-powered cars in 2030 being pushed back to 2035, some of the sheep dogs have been taken away, making it more difficult for the remaining persuaders to gather real momentum toward the desired destination.

So why are European “sheep” so stubborn and is there any hope they will soon accelerate toward the desired destination of adopting an EV? The answers to both questions are informed by the 2024 results of our EVForward Europe® study of the next generation of EV buyers, some of which I share here.

Does the EV Adoption Destination Look Any More Appealing in 2024?

The quick answer is no.

Across four years of EVForward Europe data, 2024 reveals the smallest share of European car buyers who consider EVs the future. The share of people considering EVs interesting but, effectively, a work in progress has remained static across the four years (40%). Unfortunately, the only share to increase is among those who think EVs will be a passing fad.

Not surprisingly, these sentiments translate to powertrain intentions. In 2024, just one in five car buyers expects to buy an EV for their next vehicle. The biggest share (28%) concludes that an EV won’t work for them but a plug-in hybrid EV (PHEV) might. Perhaps encouragingly, a further 20% have chosen to wait until they see the “right EV for me”—not turning their back but still in no hurry to commit.

It is almost as if in 2020 and 2021, car buyers were prepared to give the nascent EV proposition the benefit of the doubt. Viewed from a 2024 perspective with, at best, modest improvements in public charging infrastructure, perhaps car buyers are beginning to doubt the benefits of EVs?

Is PHEV a Barrier or a Springboard to EV Adoption?

Viewed from the outside, PHEVs can sound like the best of both worlds: more environmentally friendly with the safety net of a gas engine. Viewed by PHEV owners on the inside, PHEV delivers disappointingly low electric range and the heavy batteries negatively impact fuel consumption.

From a market sales perspective, PHEVs could be seen to compound a chain of negatives. In the first instance, PHEV purchases might steal some EV sales. Secondly, the potential unsatisfactory experience with PHEVs could lead some to question whether doing the “right thing” for society is the right thing “for me” and, therefore, dissuade these car buyers from acting even more responsibly by buying an EV in the future.

Are Extended-Range EVs (EREVs) the Next Interim Destination for Car Buyers or a Distraction?

EREVs are just beginning to come into sight for car buyers but will they be seen as an astute compromise that adds a worthwhile step toward EV adoption or will it create another dimension of confusion?

Having primed European cars buyers with an objective description of EREVs, we invited car buyers in our 2024 EVForward Europe study to express the extent to which they prefer EREVs vs. PHEVs.  Sizeable shares fall into both camps, indicating that the “new kid on the block” (EREVs) could well get the attention of many.

Europe’s Road to EVs: More Detours Ahead

There is little to suggest that European car buying “sheep” are moving with increased focus on and speed toward the EV adoption “sheep pen.” The ultimate destination is not looking much more attractive, the current environment is not being made to look much less attractive, and there are more distractions en route to purchasing an EV.

2035 is still a long way ahead and, in some markets, it will likely include one more vehicle replacement cycle before EVs become mandatory. The absence of cohesive, in-sync, governmental strategies will do little to attract (or scare) car buying “sheep” toward the EV “sheep pen.”

EVForward Europe 2024 can help inform automotive OEMs’ powertrain strategies by understanding car buyers’ sentiments toward and experiences of different propulsion systems. The study presents these consumer reactions in the wider context of vehicle use habits, housing and parking circumstances, and psychological mindsets. Beyond EVForward, Escalent has considerable global automotive research expertise to support the insight and advisory needs of automakers. Complete the form below if you’d like to discuss how we can support your business needs and objectives.

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About EVForward^® Europe

The EVForward Europe study was conducted across five European countries: France (n=2,034), Germany (n=1,986), Italy (n=2,037), Spain (n=2,006) and the United Kingdom (n=2,078). It included a survey that was fielded between September 9 and October 29, 2024. The respondents were aged 18 to 80 with a primary vehicle model 2018 or newer and are planning to purchase a new vehicle within the next five years. Data were weighted by age and gender to match the demographics of the new-vehicle buyer population and by vehicle segment to match current vehicle sales. The sample for this research comes from an opt-in, online panel. As such, any reported margins of error or significance tests are estimated and rely on the same statistical assumptions as data collected from a random probability sample. Escalent will supply the exact wording of any survey question upon request.